TORONTO - When a wiry, bearded man tried to enlist Pennsylvania labourers to punch deep holes in the earth in 1859 in search of oil, they thought he was crazy.
But what may have appeared foolhardy to the workers seemed worth a shot to Edwin L. Drake, who went on to strike black gold and become known as one of the earliest pioneers of the modern petroleum industry.
The previous year, in the southwestern Ontario village now known as Oil Springs, James Miller Williams dug North America's first commercial oil well, touching off a continental oil rush and making the village the birthplace of the modern oil business.
Drake's innovative drilling method, however - the use of underground piping to help prevent the collapse of well's borehole - became among the most widely copied techniques and helped to fuel the growth of the oil industry around the world.
Neither man likely could have predicted how oil would transform a civilization, let alone that one day, the head of the world's largest utility would forecast that the price of a barrel of oil could eventually skyrocket to US$250 - possibly by as early as next year.
Though largely dismissed by industry analysts, the wild card $250-a-barrel scenario - floated last week by Alexey Miller, CEO of Russian gas producer Gazprom - would have far-reaching implications and change life in Canada on nearly every level, experts and observers say.
"It would really rewrite the map of the way we live our lives," said Richard Worzel, a financial analyst, author and one of Canada's best-known futurists.
"You can pick any aspect of our lives, and it would change it significantly."
Energy infuses everything Canadians do, from the most basic travel and home heating needs to pervasive applications in food production, manufacturing and industry. Such a sustained increase in oil prices would result in widespread inflation and dramatic lifestyle changes, Worzel said.
Fresh produce in the winter would be costly and difficult to come by, as would most products manufactured overseas, he said. home-schooling and telecommuting would become commonplace, while manufacturers would develop new means of mobilizing their workforces.
"Half the workforce is wired with a Blackberry now, anyway," said Robert J. Sawyer, an award-winning science-fiction author based in Mississauga, Ont.
With the proliferation of computers and high-speed broadband Internet access, Canadians and their families are already hard-wired for a more virtual lifestyle, Sawyer said.
"Instead of people in single-occupant vehicles pouring into the downtown and spending their money to do that, they're the ones telling their boss, I don't even want to come in, unless you're going to pay me to do that."
Sawyer said he envisions a resurgence of national rail service for passengers looking to traverse the country.
Worzel said hybrid buses, high-occupancy vehicle lanes and carpooling would dramatically rise in popularity in the short term before Canadians, unable to bear the situation much longer, would be forced to make more dramatic lifestyle changes.
Real estate prices would soar in the cities, while the value of country homes would depreciate as people moved to a more compact, European model of living, he said.
The local pub would be a central social hub in a new, neighbourhood-oriented society, while smaller homes would become commonplace - all of them built on a more environmentally sound footing.
"We'd value our agricultural lands, and not pave them over," said economist David Foot, co-author of the best-selling book "Boom, Bust & Echo."
Outrageous oil prices would finally push Canadians into truly more sustainable practices, as the gains from global trade are reversed and society turns back to local production, he said.
"The world isn't flat anymore, it becomes very lumpy," Foot said. "At last, we may be able to create jobs at home rather than in some other country."
As consumption and production come together, Foot said, pollution might fall off as society comes face to face with the immediate environmental conequences faced in countries like China and India. Solar energy and wind power would move to the forefront.
A soaring Canadian dollar would likely result, however, decimating exports, spurring uneven growth and triggering political turmoil, said David Detomas, an assistant business professor at Queen's University in Kingston, Ont.
"It would radically change the politics of Canada," said Detomasi, who predicted a windening of the gap between rich and poor, and increased polarization between Canada's so-called "have" and "have not" provinces.
Nonetheless, said Sawyer, it's highly unlikely oil prices would ever hit $250 a barrel or that North Americans would every have to give up oil entirely.
Once the growth of alternative fuels demonstrates there are credible alternatives to oil's domination, "prices will drop immediately when there's risk of losing us to another source," Sawyer said.
Tamsyn Burgmann, THE CANADIAN PRESS
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